politics (and a great link)

[desh]

OK, I haven't been posting about politics much, partly because I'm trying to save my energy for the fall.

Since I haven't been talking about it, I'll first get my opinions out of the way in two paragraphs. As for the Democratic primary, I've felt all along that the most important thing is to get a Democrat in the White House in 2009. This hasn't changed one whit. If we want to get out of Iraq, end the tax cuts for the rich, move toward universal health care, keep the American middle class from dying a slow death, address poverty, keep abortion legal, and not have an irretrievably right-wing supreme court for the next generation, we need someone in the White House with a (D) after that person's name. The details of who that person is matter much less. This is a consequence of the American political system that I feel is unfortunate but real.

I've supported Obama for several months. I've liked his policies a bit more than any other candidate's ever since I made this decision in late winter. Clinton was pretty close for me at one point, but the tipping point then and since was that I think Clinton is more entrenched in the inside-the-beltway world, with lobbyists and a lack of grassroots, crashing-the-gate-style support. Since April, I especially haven't liked how she's campaigned. I am not sexist. Back when I supported Dodd and Edwards a bit more than Obama, I was not racist either. However, I feel that Clinton has been right to stay in the race up until now, and I feel that her presence in the race has been a net plus for the Democratic party as a whole and the Democrats' chances in this race in November in particular.

Now, the main reason for this post is to link you to a site that I found recently and loved, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. The author of this blog recently revealed himself to be Nate Silver, an employee of Baseball Prospectus, my favorite baseball website of all time. Nate and the other BP guys revolutionized the way I (and many others) look at baseball, by taking statistical analysis and performance measurement to a level of rigor never seen before. Nate has apparently been blogging about politics in the same way.

A few good links from FiveThirtyEight from the past few days: a popular vote calculator where you get to pick the counting method and it counts the votes for you, a discussion of the turnout in the Michigan primary, and a detailed calculation of how many delegates are needed to win the nomination and how the media might be a bit off.

Feel free to leave comments to this post, though I warn you that I probably won't participate too long in a discussion about policy or campaign strategy. As I said, I'm trying to save my energy. It would be bad if I exhaust my limited interest in this stuff over the next few months, and have no energy left in the fall to help the Dems win the White House.

Comments

[nnaylime.livejournal.com]

I could argue with you on a few things (as I suspect you suspect I would) - but I need to get my thoughts together for a post I've been planning on that topic for a while, so I'll do it in my LJ rather than yours. That said, I still can't decide whether the ugliness vis-a-vis both racism and sexism that have come out of this race are a positive or negative thing - I think to an extent it's good they were exposed, but only if we (as a country and/or party) decide to take action on it.

(Which is also a topic for a post at some point in the future if I can ever get the courage to make it both because I'm going to argue that sexism is perhaps as dangerous as racism, which may upset some people, so I need to make sure I cite it extensively and use language as neutral as possible).

That out of the way . . . thanks for the link. I'd be interested to know where the numbers for the general election came from. They're a lot more heartening than most I've seen.

[metalphoenix.livejournal.com]

I completely agree with your first paragraph. I've been leaning toward Obama from the beginning, since I was in Illinois when he ran for Senate and got to see his campaigning then. But like you said, any Democrat would be the best choice for the country at this time. I'm just afraid with all the in-fighting and the dragged-on nomination process is going to turn off the ever-growing crowd of independents. I feel like both of them should form a united front, and let the voters decide on the actual issues instead of what Obama's old minister or Clinton's former advisor said.

I had a huge rant here about the Michigan Primary, but I deleted it because I was getting too aggravated. Basically, I think it's ridiculous that the National Party said they wouldn't count the votes, no one campaigned here because of it, and therefore most of the voters just didn't show up. Why would they? No one addressed their specific concerns, and they knew it didn't matter. And then they just decide to count those votes anyway? Without a revote? I really don't agree with that.

I know plenty of people personally (like me, and pretty much all my friends in Ann Arbor) who didn't go vote for that reason. And I know we should have, if only to get a representation of the voter's opinions, but I assumed (correctly) that most people wouldn't go out and vote either and the representation would be off anyway. I don't know, it's all just really messed up. The party's eating itself.

Oh, looks like I kind of ranted anyway :/ Sorry.

[ag5j.livejournal.com]

well, this could be interpreted as being about politics...

Can you email me about the "item" you got at the reunion the weekend? I'm interested in getting a "peice" of that "action"