That's awesome. I knew Specter had a pretty decent voting record, but I thought he was old guard Republican. And "Democratic leaning state"? Have things gotten better down there?
Basically all the PA suburban moderates registered Dem a year ago to vote in the presidential primaries. So the PA dem party is probably at about the same place politically as it always has been, but it got a lot bigger. The Repubs, on the other hand, moved way right (by attrition) and got way smaller and more rural/Pennsyltucky. The net result is definitely Democratic-leaning, if not exactly Massachusetts.
Go skeptical centrists, go! I don't think this will give an automatic pass for all the great ideas coming out of the whitehouse. Rather, his conversion will probably just mean they're examined more closely by a friendly audience. Specter's return will have the benefit of locking out the kook vote, though. And that's a very good thing.
I think that nowadays, if you're a center-leaning reasonable Republican, the Democratic party is actually more appealing as a support network than what the Neocons have made of the GOP. They've spent years trying to galvanize the right instead of wooing the center, and while working with them might have been necessary during their majority, with the pendulum now swinging leftwards, working with the Dems is more likely to accomplish centrist goals.
Technically, I think you should thank Snarlin' Arlen for doing the left thing.
But, talking seriously for a second (which I never do), Pennsylvania has been trending more Democratic for the past 9 or so years. It is somewhat an effect of the Republican Party's shift further to the right (and the accompanying shift of the Democratic Party towards the center), but it is also a function of demographics. Pennsylvania has one of the highest proportions of senior citizen populations of any other state - a lot of which are those old-guard Republicans. Not only are the younger demographics more Democratic-leaning than these seniors, well, how to put it delicately... fuck it, there is no delicate here, these seniors are DYING OFF. At a faster rate than those more-Democratic-leaning whippersnappers.
So, you've got a shift among the youth toward the Democratic Party, you've got the Republican Party ceding the middle-ground to the Democrats, AND you've got a dwindling population of old-school older Republicans... all of which spells trouble for the state's Republican Party. Throw in some really pissed-off Unions, a recession largely (and largely rightfully) blamed on the Republican Party, and a still-incredibly-popular and charismatic President... and it really, REALLY sucks to be a Republican right now. For reals, y'all.
Also, this isn't Specter's first rodeo with the Democrats - he's actually switching back. Specter was a Democrat until 1966 when he wanted to run for District Attorney and the Democratic Party didn't want him, so he switched affiliation and has been a Republican ever since... until now. So, it's not so much a Coming-Out Party as it is a Homecoming. Welcome back, Arlen.
Actually, I doubt Arlen's voting patterns will change all that much on major issues (he's still against the Employee Free Choice Act, by the way, which pisses off the Unions who vowed to sink him if he voted against it)... however, the real benefit to having Arlen be a Democrat on paper is that he'll support Democratic procedural maneuvers, such as cloture.
Cloture is a fancy parliamentary term for "shut the fuck up and let's vote already" (I believe it's French*). Basically, with Arlen as Senator #59 and the WTF-get-over-with-it-already-and-seat-the-damned-guy Franken as #60, the Democrats have enough votes to stop ongoing debates in the Senate and force an up-or-down vote on an issue. Even if Arlen votes against the Democrats on the up-or-down votes, he'll face enormous Democratic Party pressure to vote for cloture, because otherwise he'll have his privileges (such as possible chairmanships of the Judiciary or Appropriations committees, earmarks for pet projects in Pennsylvania, and of course, a primo Senate office) revoked. So, I'm not nearly as excited about his changing from a moderate Republican to a moderate Democrat (since that will likely not affect his up-or-down voting), but I am VERY excited about his changing parties from a purely procedural standpoint. And that's not even mentioning how he can help us on Senate committees and lobbying his moderate Republican colleagues to break rank more often.
--Jeff
* No, it's not French. The French for "cloture" is "clôtúre".
I think it's really sad, actually, because I was hoping the Republican party would eventually reform from within as long as there were reasonable people like Specter in it. See Snowe (one of the two AWESOME Maine senators)'s op-ed in the NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/opinion/29snowe.html?_r=1 . I agree with practically everything she says in there.
I mean, she makes a lot of sense. I just have two problems with what she says: First, I'm way to the left of her politically, so I don't want more moderates as much as I want more lefties. (And besides, I think the popular definition of "moderate" defines a position that nowadays is on the right half of the country's political spectrum anyway. We've all shifted left.) And second of all, I think she's way to the left of the Republican party as a whole (except for the small extent to which it still exists in New England). She certainly doesn't speak for the rest of them, and there's even a chance that she's on her way out too.
It's going to take a lot more than Specter, Collins, and Snowe to fix what they've got broken. And I for one am in no rush.
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
(Anonymous) 2009-04-28 09:31 pm (UTC)(link)no subject
But, talking seriously for a second (which I never do), Pennsylvania has been trending more Democratic for the past 9 or so years. It is somewhat an effect of the Republican Party's shift further to the right (and the accompanying shift of the Democratic Party towards the center), but it is also a function of demographics. Pennsylvania has one of the highest proportions of senior citizen populations of any other state - a lot of which are those old-guard Republicans. Not only are the younger demographics more Democratic-leaning than these seniors, well, how to put it delicately... fuck it, there is no delicate here, these seniors are DYING OFF. At a faster rate than those more-Democratic-leaning whippersnappers.
So, you've got a shift among the youth toward the Democratic Party, you've got the Republican Party ceding the middle-ground to the Democrats, AND you've got a dwindling population of old-school older Republicans... all of which spells trouble for the state's Republican Party. Throw in some really pissed-off Unions, a recession largely (and largely rightfully) blamed on the Republican Party, and a still-incredibly-popular and charismatic President... and it really, REALLY sucks to be a Republican right now. For reals, y'all.
Also, this isn't Specter's first rodeo with the Democrats - he's actually switching back. Specter was a Democrat until 1966 when he wanted to run for District Attorney and the Democratic Party didn't want him, so he switched affiliation and has been a Republican ever since... until now. So, it's not so much a Coming-Out Party as it is a Homecoming. Welcome back, Arlen.
--Jeff
no subject
Cloture is a fancy parliamentary term for "shut the fuck up and let's vote already" (I believe it's French*). Basically, with Arlen as Senator #59 and the WTF-get-over-with-it-already-and-seat-the-damned-guy Franken as #60, the Democrats have enough votes to stop ongoing debates in the Senate and force an up-or-down vote on an issue. Even if Arlen votes against the Democrats on the up-or-down votes, he'll face enormous Democratic Party pressure to vote for cloture, because otherwise he'll have his privileges (such as possible chairmanships of the Judiciary or Appropriations committees, earmarks for pet projects in Pennsylvania, and of course, a primo Senate office) revoked. So, I'm not nearly as excited about his changing from a moderate Republican to a moderate Democrat (since that will likely not affect his up-or-down voting), but I am VERY excited about his changing parties from a purely procedural standpoint. And that's not even mentioning how he can help us on Senate committees and lobbying his moderate Republican colleagues to break rank more often.
--Jeff
* No, it's not French. The French for "cloture" is "clôtúre".
no subject
no subject
It's going to take a lot more than Specter, Collins, and Snowe to fix what they've got broken. And I for one am in no rush.